Figure 1. Flying Tree in the Chiricahua Mountains |
To become a viable scientific hypothesis, based on the image of a Flying Tree, several key points must be addressed. Primarily the application of the scientific method. Observation, hypothesis formation, predictions, and testing.
One - Observation. Panoramic photographs of floating trees were produced from 2 hikes in the Chiricahua Mountains.
Two - Hypothesis. These images of isolated segments of trees are an adaptive response to high intensity fire and are a trees mechanism allowing it to remove itself from areas of high intensity fire.
Three - Testable predictions.
A. Flying Trees will only be observed in areas of high intensity burn.
B. Flying Trees will only be observed at the highest elevations in areas with the highest sustained winds.
C. Flying Trees can be observed between mountain ranges following upper level wind patterns.
D. If a fire related dispersal or escape mechanism, Flying Trees should be observed with seeds (pine cones).
E. Evidence of displacement. Flying Trees on the ground should be evident on mountain ranges down wind, and not associated with stumps, indicating landing .
F. Evidence of displacement. Flying Trees should be found in areas where the species is not normally found indicating a missed landing.
Of the 6 testable predictions, 2 were tested. Predictions A and B relate to location, areas of high intensity burn and high wind conditions. The burn map produced by the BEAR team shows areas of burn intensity in the Chiricahua mountains, Figure 2. The highest elevations of the Sky Islands in southeastern Arizona received the most intense burn and were areas with the highest sustained winds. To test prediction A the location of the 2 Flying Trees was plotted. Both occurrences of Flying Trees was consistent with high intensity burns (red areas). Three roughly north south transects (2-3 miles in length) at 3 different elevations were also examined for flying trees, Figure 3. A low elevation (5200'-5600') transect along the riparian areas in Cave Creek Canyon, a mid elevation transect in the interior of the Chiricahua Mountains (6000' - 6700'), and a high elevation transect (8600' - 9600'). Evidence of Flying Trees were only found along the high elevation transect, Figure 2. No isolated flying pines were seen at mid or lower elevations nor were they observed in areas of lower burn intensity.
Burn intensity map with 3 transects and locations of Flying Trees (A). |
Figure 3. Topographic map of Chiricahua Mountains with 3 transects. |
Predictions C, D, and F have not been tested. Though preliminary data relating to prediction E (Evidence of displacement. Flying Trees on the ground should be evident on mountain ranges down wind, and not associated with stumps, indicating landing) was gathered from elevations ranging from 4200' - 6900' in the Peloncillo Mountains. Transects of similar length in Mouser Canyon, Gray Mountain, and Skeleton Canyon were all examined for Flying Trees. In all 3 instances no evidence of Flying Trees was observed. Although the elevations in the Peloncillo Mountains examined were similar to the low and mid elevation transects in the Chiricahua Mountains where no Flying Trees were observed. No comparable high elevations exist in any range east of the Chiricahua Mountains and may require examination of upwind mountain ranges with elevations similar to the Chiricahua Mountains.
While evidence is presented that is consistent with the notion that certain species of pine have or have developed a specific flight response to high intensity fires, which may be either an escape or dispersal mechanism, the lack of evidence of Flying Trees down wind cast doubt on the utility of the hypothesis and requires addition evidence.
More research is needed.
ReplyDeleteI agree. I was told the hike this week will be to Monte Vista Peak and the Barfoot lookout. Hypothesis testing will ensue at some point on the hike.
ReplyDeleteOh my, you had fun with this ... and so did I! Thanks!
ReplyDeleteIt goes from flying saucers to flying trees! I wonder what you will find on this weeks hike.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Even when the original idea does not work as planned the results can be adapted to another idea. I hope to find a flying tree with pines cones this week to test the dispersal mechanism prediction.
ReplyDeleteI just don't understand... Imagination or science? Hahaha. I'll have to go hiking there sometime by my self so I can see some flying trees.
ReplyDelete-Oscar Valencia